AL Market Update: LME Holiday, AL Market Trends, and Global Economic Insights

As we head into the Easter long weekend, it's important to note that the London Metal Exchange (LME) will be closed this Friday and next Monday in observance of the holiday, which is a federal holiday in the UK and Commonwealth countries. However, we’ll continue to trade on those days based on after-market rates, with each offer being handled individually.

Let’s dive into the latest trends in the aluminum (AL) market and other key economic developments from last week.

Aluminum Market Overview

The aluminum market saw some slight fluctuations since last Friday. Here's a breakdown of the key metrics:

• LLME: Down by $0.0057

• MWP: Up by $0.003

• MWTP: Down by $0.0027 overall

  
  

Despite these minor shifts, the AL market is up by $0.0179 since last Monday. Similarly, the lowest LME has increased by $0.0084, and the MWP has risen by $0.0095 over the same period.

Current Market Levels:

• LLME: 1.0684

• MWP: 0.391

• MWTP: 1.4594

  
  

Contributing Factors to Market Movements

Several macroeconomic factors have influenced the market this week:

1. U.S. Tariff Updates and Trade Tensions with China

   President Trump’s decision to relieve most countries from tariffs, granting a 90-day pause, had a temporary positive effect. However, tensions with China persist, particularly with China’s threat of imposing 125% tariffs on U.S. imports and the US threatening to impose 145% on Chinese imports. Recently, new tariffs have targeted smartphones and tech products from China. Given that smartphones contain significant amounts of aluminum (24% by mass) and copper (18%), any tariffs on these products could have a considerable impact on global metal markets.

   
   

2. Construction Materials Prices

   According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), prices for construction materials rose by 0.7% in March, with a 1.8% year-over-year increase. Notably, durable manufacturing materials saw the largest gain at 3.1%, while processed fuels and lubricants dropped by 3.2%. These fluctuations in construction material costs can influence demand for metals used in the construction industry.

   
   

3. Stainless Steel Scrap Prices in India

   Last week, India’s domestic and imported stainless steel (SS) scrap prices decreased by up to INR 4,000/t and $50/t week-on-week, driven by LME nickel prices falling to a nearly five-year low of around $14,000/t. The situation stemmed from the ongoing U.S. reciprocal tariffs on China. However, by mid-week, the market rebounded after the 90-day suspension of tariffs, and the buying activity remained low to moderate. As of last week, domestic 304-grade SS scrap was priced at INR 111,000/t (ex-Delhi), while imported scrap was $1,255/t (CFR Mundra).

   
   

4. Stock Market Declines

   In the U.S., stock indices took a hit at the end of the week. The Dow Jones fell 2.50%, closing at 39,593.66 points, the S&P 500 dropped 3.46% to 5,268.05, and the Nasdaq declined 4.31%, ending at 16,387.31. The Dow tracks 30 major U.S. companies, and the S&P 500 reflects the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. stocks. These indices are often seen as barometers for the overall health of the economy, and the recent declines indicate heightened volatility.

   
   

Last Week’s AL Market Trends:

• LLME High: 1.0741

• LLME Low: 1.0356

• MWP High: 0.388

• MWP Low: 0.376

• MWTP High: 1.4621

• MWTP Low: 1.4116

  
  
  
  

Looking Ahead

As we enter the Easter weekend and the LME remains closed, we’ll continue to monitor how these global trade tensions, tariff developments, and economic factors impacting the aluminum and metals markets unfold. Stay tuned for more updates after the holiday, and we’ll keep you informed on the latest trends and market shifts.

If you have any questions or would like more details on specific trends, feel free to reach out!